If and when more reassuring data come in, relaxing restrictions will be easier than undoing the damage done by not having reacted in time.įrom the January/February 2021 issue: How science beat the virus In fact, we should act quickly especially as we await more clarity-lack of data and the threat of even faster exponential growth argue for more urgency of action. The short-term implications of all this are significant, and worthy of attention, even as we await more clarity from data. Increased transmissibility can wreak havoc in a very, very short time-especially when we already have uncontrolled spread in much of the United States. That’s because higher transmissibility subjects us to a more contagious virus spreading with exponential growth, whereas the risk from increased severity would have increased in a linear manner, affecting only those infected. If anything, given the stage in the pandemic we are at, a more transmissible variant is in some ways much more dangerous than a more severe variant. Health officials have started emphasizing the lack of evidence for more severe disease.Īll good and no cause for alarm, right? Wrong.Ī more transmissible variant of COVID-19 is a potential catastrophe in and of itself. And while we need more data to feel truly reassured, many scientists believe that this variant will not decrease vaccine efficacy much, if at all. There are still many unknowns, but much concern has focused on whether this new variant would throw off vaccine efficacy or cause more severe disease-with some degree of relief after an initial study indicated that it did not do either.
Barely one day after officials announced that America’s first case of the variant had been found in the United States, in a Colorado man with no history of travel, an additional case was found in California. Viruses mutate all the time, often with no impact, but this one appears to be more transmissible than other variants-meaning it spreads more easily.
It was first identified in the United Kingdom, where it is rapidly spreading, and has been found in multiple countries. A new variant of the coronavirus is spreading across the globe.
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